5 TRENDS KEEPING ME AWAKE AT NIGHT
Posted on May 10, 2010 by Jeffrey Newman
I try to read as much as I can these days. It helps me believe that I am still young and able. Sometimes however, itresults in obsessive thinking to the point of apocalyptic concern. The past week has been of particular concern–the perfect storm seems to be brewing. Here’s what’s worrying me now in no particular order; 1) the potential for a collapse of the European Union. The problem doesn’t reside in Greece, a small country. My worry is with Germany, which is bearing a major burden of taxation for the problems of other members of the union. Germany’s economy is not that strong rights now and my concern is that it will become impotent. I also worry about The United Kingdom, which has an economic system weaker than it has ever been. The EU currency system accounts for 20% of the global GDP so the problem is not “over there” as a split of the union will shock the world economy with disastrous results. I am also worried now about chronic water shortages. Experts have seen this coming for years but now it is upon us, threatening parts of California, Nevada, Florida, Georgia and if nothing is done soon will result in an abandonment of those places. The only one benefitting are the water bottling companies, whose stocks are through the roof. As water becomes more scarce, there wil be water wars. This is a reality. I really worry about China too, a country I knew too little about until my daughter went to live and study there. It’s an environmental disaster and a nation experiencing a massive unchecked epidemic of diabetes and cardiovascular disease and no medical providers for individuals without insurance or wealth. It’s population is aging and due to the one child policy it is losing its own labor pool. My concern is that China will eventually spiral and there will be no one to buy our treasury notes. That doesn’t address the choking pollution, which goes on unabated because of China’s growth model. It is happening too quickly. I’m worry about our own country and whether we can continue to afford medicare and other entitlement programs. I worry about the coming terrorist act that we don’t interrupt which will set up the fear/anger mentality which got us into Iraq and Afghanistan.Please tell me I am overly concerned.
Comments (1)
China also has been engaging in sex selection to create a large imbalance of young males. So has India. There is a traditional means for societies to deal with that, which might not work so well given that both nations are armed with nuclear weapons. And over here on the West Coast of the United States of America, we’re right in the fallout patterns, not to mention the possibilities of global dimming causing crop failures if they let off a few hundred of those.
There is also a considerable lack of will in most nations to confront huge long-term problems now, while it’s less expensive, rather than later, when it will be much more difficult. Infrastructure investment to deal with water is only one part of that problem. Did you see the poll in The Economist where the only thing that more than 25% of the US population were willing to cut in order to deal with the national deficit was foreign aid, which is only 1% of the budget?
The thing that you should really take heart from is there is a lot of innovation going on; any one act of it isn’t going to save us, but even if just a few good ones come through, they could be game-changers.