FutureVigil (r) » Forecasting

Should the Government Take Over the Oil Leak Cap Efforts now?

Jeffrey Newman — Sat, 29 May 2010 23:14:46 +0000

I write this directly upon BP’s announcement that “top kill” has failed to stop the flow of oil from the well and it is moving on to another approach. Given the fact that the spill is the largest disaster of its kind and the economic impact growing daily, some consideration should be given to the issue of who should control the efforts to halt the flow of oil into the Gulf. Administration officials have said that the government lacks expertise and technology, including deep diving subs, to perform the work. At some point, if BP is unsuccessful, it is likely that the government will take over and soon, perhaps enlisting other deep well oil companies to work in combination with BP. Shouldn’t this happen now? Evidence already exists that the oil has hit the gulf stream and is being carried into Florida’s waterways and is expected to run up the East Coast. No one has estimated the probable losses resulting from the event or modeled the potential harm that could befall our nation from a continuation of the leak. This is not to question the good intentions of the BP engineers who are engaging in present efforts. It is assumed for purposes of this discussion that they are well intentioned and doing everything within their power to halt the flow of oil. What is unclear to me at this time is whether our government has put out a call for the best and brightest engineers, undersea contractors, academics, oil capping experts and others to contribute their energies in an organized effort to halt the flow of oil. Certainly the resources of the federal government and the incredible pool of talented minds in our nation can come up with something notwithstanding that the leak is a mile underground. In addition to the existing problems, computer models estimating worst case scenarios with timetables should be released to the public for analysis.

SEC Creating World Class Whistleblower Program

Jeffrey Newman — Thu, 08 Apr 2010 15:05:26 +0000

The Securities and Exchange Commission and Congress are ramping up new laws and programs to create a world-class whistleblower program for the SEC which will replace the current one which will reward informants of violations that lead to penalties of more than $1 million. More to come on this.

What happens if political gridlock kills healthcare

Jeffrey Newman — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 01:13:12 +0000

Few have projected the details of what will occur if the current healthcare initiatives are stalemated in Washington. There has been some general talk of costly overruns for Medicare and a significant increase in interest rates as well as a depressed stock market but these hallmarks really don’t mean much. I would like someone to run an extrapolation as to when the costly healthcare system will begin to depress the economy and the details of what specifically will happen with Medicare. This shouldn’t that hard to do for the Office of The General Budget or the Auditor. If The American Public could see the numbers in black and white and if they were presented with a realistic healthcare proposal with the specifics on how it will be paid for–all set forth in understandable detail, I don’t think there would be as much opposition to a plan as here is now. Of course, I could be wrong.

Dispatch from China–Many Loved Children

Jeffrey Newman — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 04:12:39 +0000

I am in the Shanghai airport traveling to Kunming after three glorious days of the Chinese New Year in Shanghai. The world dynamic aside for the time being, the Chinese mothers and fathers and grandparents I see here hold and kiss their children as if they will not see them for many years. They dote on them and talk to them and show them the world in with constant attention that every child should have. Xin Yen Quai Leu, one of the few expressions I have learned (Happy New Year), results in immediate response of smiles and delight from parents and the children themselves. We visit the former home of Sun Yat-Sen, which is in the French Quarter and is now a museum.This Chinese intellectual wrote some advanced books in his time, early 1920’s and set up the Military Government of the Republic of China in Guangzhou. The stately home, with relics and images of this Chinese leader was visited by many when we were there and we were the only Americans. One older Chinese woman came over and tapped me on the arm showing me a framed inscription written by Chairman Mao. She read each letter with glee explaining (translated by my daughter) that Chairman Mao wrote this with her own hand. She wanted me to know. We attended the gardens in Shanghai, which was teeming with people taking time off work to celebrate the new year. The food, cooked in stalls in the open filled the air with a thousands wonderful smells. The children wanted their picture taken with my daughter, who is fluent in their language. Perhaps the mood of the people was joyous for the New Year but I also think there is a lot happening here and that can be felt by watching the people here. I would, of course, know a lot more by learning the language and living here. Another thing–they LOVE basketball here! There are pro teams popping up everywhere and american players and teams visit here a lot. Here is my projection–over time, there will be escalating trade and tourism between China and the US like nothing ever expected. There are so many things in common–despite differences that cannot be ignored.

Top Potential Medical Breakthrough Gamechangers for 2010

Jeffrey Newman — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 01:53:06 +0000

1. HIV Vaccine: Researchers have deciphered two antibodies produced by some HIV patients which have neutralized many HIV strains. These are far more potents than the four previously discovered and may be specific to the developing world where 95% of the new cases happen. The current focus is on creating a vaccine active ingredient to produce antibodies. 2. Cancer Prevention and Treatment: Oncologists are now prescribing exercise for their patients as it boosts survival and lowers recurrence rates. Brisk walking 3 hours a week lowered breast and colon cancer mortality by 50%. 3. Alzheimer’s treatment: Researchers at West Virginia have developed a test and treatment for Alzheimer’s disease relating to a defectuve ezyme involved in memory function. Low doses of the chemo drug bryostatin reactivated these defective enzymes restoring memory. Human clinical trials are starting this year. 4. Heart Attack Prevention: A prescription drug Lovaza is FDA approved to treat high triglycerides and has 3-4 more EPA and DHA forms of Omega 3 as usually found in fish oils.

Millions at risk as AIDS focus fades

Jeffrey Newman — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 01:28:56 +0000

Global attention appears to be turning away from the AIDS epidemic and this comes just at the wrong time as a fresh wave of the disease is expected to infect millions of people in high risk countries a leading expert said Friday. “There seems to be a perception now that AIDS has been dealt with and we can turn our attention to other issues,” said Alan Whiteside, Director of Health Economic and HIV/AIDS research at Kwazulu Natal University. He explained that many African countries where the diseases poses the worst threat were failing to implement long-term prevention measures needed to stem the disease. “Climate change and he environment are the big issues now and politicians may abandon the battle against AIDS,” he said. The disease is developing into a “hyper-epidemic” in African countries like Malawai and Swaziland where half the women 25-29 have HIV or AIDS.

Google: Glimmer of a Soul?

Jeffrey Newman — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 15:36:58 +0000

Following on the heels of Google’s announcement that it may pull out of China, Joe Schoendorf, a Partner at Accel Partners, a Silicon Valley venture capital firm told the New York Times “Google has Microsoft on the ropes, and China is arguably the world’s most important market outside of the U.S. You don’t walk away from that on principle.” Mr. Schoendorf may be missing a critical point in long term corporate strategy. If Google is bold enough to take a stand now and close its operations in China, it will serve the establish the company as a leader on the world stage, placing it ahead of any other company in helping to formulate policies dealing with human rights and other legal issues. China, with its expanding role as a global economic power, has had few challenges by corporations or government intervention. Here we have the first glimmer of Google’s soul–what the company is at its heart. This will not be lost on consumers long term. Even publicly traded corporations cannot make decisions based solely on the best interests of its stockholders. Google would go a long way in establishing itself as the visionary company of our time if it pulls out of China. Other companies would do well to watch and do the same. The global arena of nations and companies cannot allow China to breach internation laws and human rights as it wishes. Th e long term ramifications to this are unthinkable, as China gains further strength. If Google wants to take its place as the greatest company in the world, surpassing Microsoft, it should stake its moral ground now.

THE MOBILE DEVICE INVENTION I’D LIKE TO SEE IN 2010

Jeffrey Newman — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 23:12:26 +0000

There is one invention concerning mobile devices that I’d like to see advanced next year, for the safety of the American public and my sanity. I would estimate that over half of the drivers in America text while driving. This estimate is entirely anecdotal, based on my own observation of accidents, near misses and crazy driving during texting/emailing. It drives me insane (excuse the pun). I realize that the temptation to do so is enormous, given the pace of business and the obsession to stay connected , but the fact of doing it is aburd. I can’t really understand why a device has not been developed to allow a person to respond to an email via voice recognition. I envision it working this way. An email comes in and a voice says to you, “you have an email from Donald Cramer, would you like to respond to it?” “Yes,” you say. “Ok. Donald says, ‘hi. Can we meet at at 2 today?’”
“Sure Donald,” you respond and the device translates this and types a response to Donald via email. Now it is my understanding that technology such as this already exists on the shelf. If it does, not only should this device be embraced, the government should create a tax credit for individuals to use it, as it might prevent people from texting while driving, a phenominon which I am sure is costing thousands of lives and even more injuries now. So all of you inventors and techies, please help to launch this product. I thank you in advance. Jeff

SOCIAL MEDIA TO PREVENT MURDERS AND SUICIDES?

Jeffrey Newman — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 20:49:57 +0000

This tidbit of creative thinking was found on the site of Jonathan Nguyen, who works in PR andcrises management. He saw a news story about George Sodini, who murdered three and wounded nine others in a Pennsylvania gym before killing himself. Sodini had talked about his plans on his blog, as have many others. Now, there are social media monitoring tools such as Radian6 which can read and listen to conversations on the web, including the blogosphere via an heuristic analysis engine. It is used sometimes to protect brands from disparagement and to guage sentiment on products. The questions raised is whether it could be modified to watch for potential homicidal or suicidal acts? Outstanding lateral thinking Jonathan! Present uses of social media are rudimentary and limited.

FILM THE ROAD AND BOOK BLOOD MERIDIAN BY CORMAC MCCARTHY

Jeffrey Newman — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 15:12:06 +0000

Yesterday, after having read THE ROAD twice, I saw the film adaptation. As I have said about the book, I was captured and entranced by the characters, who became a part of my life during the read, to the point of distracting me during working hours, especially when I knew they were in trouble. It was no longer a book for me but rather a communication I knew was important, about two fellow travelers struggling to stay alive. I went to the film without any expectations that it should live up to the film or be true to it, as this would set the stage for failure. The book and the film had to stand on their own without help or hinderance from the other. Despite the dark and brooding images lasting throughout and the visualization of the worst of mankind including cannibalism, I felt the film was well done and the intimacy between a man and his son in the most difficult of times conveyed well and without embellishments or Hollywood type injections. The acting is superb and the dialogue well written. The film made me think, despite the fact that I knew the plot well. So I recommend that people see this film, which may not sell as well as Avatar but will stand the test of time and I predict will have legs for years to come, as did the film ON THE BEACH, based on the apocalyptic book by NEVILLE SHUTE. Now, I am on to reading another of Cormac McCarthy’s books, BLOOD MERIDIAN about life in the early 1800’s in Texas and New Mexico. Cormac researched this heavily before writing and has depicted man’s heart of darkness and brutality with skill and poetry. Be prepared for the worst but know that it all happened. A worthwhile gift for the holidays, either in paperback or on tape. My favorite character, without giving away the plot, is THE JUDGE. An ecclectic and intellectual fellow widely read and traveled, a former lawyer, he is also much much more and I have met people like him and these people are to be feared.