FutureVigil (r) » predictive analysis

Virtual Reality Computer Models Accurately Predict Results of Real Battles

Jeffrey Newman — Sun, 09 May 2010 16:58:41 +0000

New computer modeling based on human behaviors in the past have resulted in the ability of military analysts to predict the probable outcome of particular battles. The research is being done at The University of Maryland and is expected to enhance the battlefield decision making processes in a major way.

What happens if political gridlock kills healthcare

Jeffrey Newman — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 01:13:12 +0000

Few have projected the details of what will occur if the current healthcare initiatives are stalemated in Washington. There has been some general talk of costly overruns for Medicare and a significant increase in interest rates as well as a depressed stock market but these hallmarks really don’t mean much. I would like someone to run an extrapolation as to when the costly healthcare system will begin to depress the economy and the details of what specifically will happen with Medicare. This shouldn’t that hard to do for the Office of The General Budget or the Auditor. If The American Public could see the numbers in black and white and if they were presented with a realistic healthcare proposal with the specifics on how it will be paid for–all set forth in understandable detail, I don’t think there would be as much opposition to a plan as here is now. Of course, I could be wrong.

The Doomsday Clock Graph

Jeffrey Newman — Sun, 17 Jan 2010 02:19:39 +0000

EARTH TO GET CLOSE SHAVE FROM NEW ASTEROID

Jeffrey Newman — Sat, 16 Jan 2010 14:58:07 +0000

An asteroid 30 to 50 feet across will pass by the Earth at just more than one-third the distance between the Earth and the moon on Wednesday. That’s the closest near-Earth object approach currently known between now and the flyby in 2024 of a similar-size object known as 2007 XB23.

The new asteroid, called 2010 AL30, was discovered by the NASA-funded Lincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research program, and announced Monday by the Minor Planet Center at the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory.

It should be noted that an asteroid this small probably would not cause major damage were it to impact Earth’s atmosphere, and would probably burn up before it reached the planet’s surface.

WILL NEW TECHNOLOGY BRING JUDGMENT DAY TO MOVIE THEATRES?

Jeffrey Newman — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 17:12:52 +0000

Do movie theatres face a bleak future as a result of digital technology advances that will allow for film viewing via computer tablets or television? Digital projectors exist in only 1500 screens across the country of a total of over 40,000 screens and the consumers are demanding higher quality images. The gaming industry is surpassing the film industry and the gaming audience is not going to theatres as much. Game sales have surpassed movie sales by billions. Games offer a higher level of immersion in the story than do films and many more hours of entertainment. In addition, some consumers see the cost of attending films as too high given what they can buy at home. Will theatres survive?

SOCIAL MEDIA TO PREVENT MURDERS AND SUICIDES?

Jeffrey Newman — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 20:49:57 +0000

This tidbit of creative thinking was found on the site of Jonathan Nguyen, who works in PR andcrises management. He saw a news story about George Sodini, who murdered three and wounded nine others in a Pennsylvania gym before killing himself. Sodini had talked about his plans on his blog, as have many others. Now, there are social media monitoring tools such as Radian6 which can read and listen to conversations on the web, including the blogosphere via an heuristic analysis engine. It is used sometimes to protect brands from disparagement and to guage sentiment on products. The questions raised is whether it could be modified to watch for potential homicidal or suicidal acts? Outstanding lateral thinking Jonathan! Present uses of social media are rudimentary and limited.

Organizations Focused On The Future of the World

Jeffrey Newman — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 19:27:02 +0000

Association of Professional Futurists – A community of professional futurists committed to leadership and excellence in the futures field.
The Calousian Association – A membership organization of those wanting to help the humanity in reaching Calousia, the humanity’s state of high-capacity existence.
The Centre for Future Studies – Futures think tank focused on future trends and their impacts for applications including product development, strategy formulation, marketing communications, customer relationship management; trends analyses, scenarios and predictions, upcoming events, and discussion forum.
The Club of Rome – International think tank composed of prominent intellectuals and decision-makers analyzing global, interlinked, long-term problems challenging the future of humanity and the planet using systems analysis and futures research; site offers reports, upcoming events, a forum, and links to further resources.
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies – A Danish independent institution with the objective of researching the future for public and private organizations, in order to strengthen their basis for decision-making. Bilingual site.
Craig Research Labs – A private sector scientific research firm, existing to accelerate the technological development of the human race.
The DaVinci Institute – Comprised of over 150 scientists, researchers, and futurists located across the United States, its goal being to track emerging technologies and speculate about future inventions.
The Digital Exploration Society – DEX – Multimedia authoring from remote, natural places allows children and adults to understand how to express themselves in the new media world of global digital communication.
Foresight for the European Research Area (FORERA) – Foresight provides a framework for a group of people concerned with an issue at stake, such as future of EU manufacturing, research and development and innovation priorities, transport and mobility.
Foresight Institute – “The non-profit Foresight Institute focuses its efforts on nanotechnology, the coming ability to build materials and products with atomic precision, and systems that will enhance knowledge exchange and critical discussion, thus improving public and private policy decisions.”
Foundation for the Future – Non-profit organization offers seminars and publications related to envisioning future human evolution. Includes nomination information of the Kistler Prize for excellence in human genetics research.
Frontier Organizations on the Web – - A list of organizations engaged in frontier and visionary work such as future studies, philosophy, personal and social liberation, and advanced technology
Future 25 – The international branch of the German registered society `Zukunft 25 e.V.’ which is dedicated to promoting thinking and acting in long time spans.
Global Business Network – A membership organization specializing in scenario thinking and collaborative learning about the future. Their worldwide network includes strategists from more than 50 leading companies, as well as experts from the arts, sciences, business, and academia.
Imagitrends – Non-profit organization focused on sustainable development offers free e-journal and provides environmental scanning services related to trend-spotting.
Institute for Alternative Futures – Nonprofit research and educational organization specializing in aiding organizations and individuals to more wisely choose and create their preferred futures.
Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies – A nonprofit organization in the United States seeking to contribute to the understanding of the impact of emerging technologies on individuals and societies.
Institute for Future Studies (IFS) – Conducts research and public discussion of questions concerning future use of information and communication technologies, especially in the professional and educational worlds. Staff profiles, services and current project information, and publication library provided.
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) – One of the eight Research Institutes of the European Commission (EC), the IPTS organizes regional foresight studies on science and technology to inform political and economic decision-makers.
The Interstellar Panspermia Society – Dedicated to promoting the future of life in space by directed panspermia missions.
The Long Now Foundation – A project of computer pioneer Daniel Hillis and Whole Earth founder Stewart Brand to develop a 10,000 year clock. This is long-term project that gets people thinking past the mental barrier of the Millennium.
The Millennium Project – Think tank of futurists, scholars, business planners, and policy makers.
The Mother’s Service Society, Pondicherry, India – Social science research institute which has done extensive research in such areas as social development theory, economics, management, peace and governance, the future of money, the future role of the Internet, the future of science, the future World Army, and the Global Century.
New Civilization Network – A network of people, projects and ideas for building a world that works.
New Environment Association – Background and current activities directed toward achieving a sustainable world that is supportive of all human beings.
NewDay.nl – Dutch community from people who have doubts about the future.
Northern Land Use Institute – Planning, environment and Land Use Issues of Northern British Columbia are all the focus of the Northern Land Use Institute at the University of Northern British Columbia
Shaping Tomorrow – Helps people and organizations better anticipate and respond to upcoming change through research and programs that review critical uncertainties, challenges and trends.
World Future Society – For people interested in how social and technological developments are shaping the future. Futurist forecasts, interviews, publications, upcoming events, and organization information.
World Futures Studies Federation – A professional society of futures researchers, academics, consultants, and their affiliated organizations. Includes activities, events, newsletter (and archives), membership directory, and members-only sections (fee required to join).
World Resources Institute – Non-profit organization supporting research, conferences, education, training, and policy initiatives for environmental stewardship and sustainable development; resources available online include essays, research reports, and powerpoint presentations.
World Space League – Primary Objective: To establish a World Wide Network of people who believe that Space Business / Travel /Education should be available to all people regardless of age, race, religion and income.
World-Information.org – Organization explores implications of new information and communication technologies. Includes press releases, information on events and exhibits, and links to related resources.

UltraFuture World – A global thinktank and brain trust that creates and facilitates events, media and projects on the leading-edges of technology and culture. (November 11, 2007)

CAN STATISTICAL MODELS PREDICT THE GLOBAL FUTURE?

Jeffrey Newman — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 17:43:35 +0000

A 2007 article in Good Magazine summarized the work of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita who claims to predict mathematically, “virtually any international conflict, provided the basic inputs are accurate.” Bueno de Mesquita can also be seen on You Tube giving lectures. His work, which some dismiss too readily, raises important issues concerning the use of statistics and game theory to reliably envision the probable outcome of major world events. Who is this guy? He’s an NYU Professor of Political Science who has also studied statistics and has created a model simulation program. In the program, he takes a particular world flashpoint and plots out the probable way things will unfold based on what is known of the nation-state leaders and their actions assuming they work from a point of self interest. He acknowledges the existence of Black Swans, the events we can never anticipate but says their existence does not do away with his ability to determine a probable scenario and outcome. Allan Stam, Professor of Political Science at Penn State, examined the validity of Bueno de Mesquita’s work in the October 2000 British Journal of Political Science. He supported Bueno de Mesquita’s work, within certain limitations. A year before, Stephen Walt on the faculty at Harvard, attacked the assumptions of Bueno de Mesquita’s approach using “rational choice” models. (players promoting their own interests which Walt says is not always the case, especially when emotions or mental illness come to play). Bueno de Mesquita is asserting that consistent and repeatable findings that can reliably determine the outcome of major international conflicts. What has yet to be considered is what happens when other people use the same model? Can they achieve the same results consistently, using the same model and methods? Given that Bueno De Mesquita is claiming to use the scientific model, this, measure is the essential measure of his work. Looking more broadly, human behavior is obviously difficult to predict. However, decisions made by world leaders in crises do seem to have their own internal logic and statistical modeling is advancing swiftly in sophistication. Here where I think all of this fits. If Bueno de Mesquita and his model could reliably predict the outcome of international crisis points, he would be one of the wealthiest and most influential persons on the planet, which he isn’t. However, we now have an enhanced and growing ability to amass volumes of information quickly and to access meaningful data previously kept secret. This, combined with an increasing knowledge about the dynamics of world affairs and the internal workings of nations may allow us to reach a point where these kinds of model simulations will set a reliable base point for projecting of world trends. (As an aside, I think Bueno de Mesquita would make a great character for a dystopian sci fi novel placing him into the time when such models work and showing what horror it would wreak on his life and the lives of those around him. Sometimes, it doesn’t pay to know too much). What do you think?

BUENO DE MESQUITA–PREDICTIVE GAME THEORY GENIUS OR MATH HERETIC?

Jeffrey Newman — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 19:59:00 +0000

A 2007 article in Good Magazine written by Michael A.M. Lerner summarized some of the work of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita in mathematically predicting “virtually any international conflict, provided the basic inputs are accurate.” Bueno de Mesquita can also be seen on You Tube giving lectures and his work raise important but thorny issues on the use of math and game theory to determine reliably the outcome of major world events. I repeat earlier caveats that I am neither a math expert or futurist but I have started to examine the potential value of model simulations in charting the potential scenarios that may unfold on the world stage. Allan Stam, Professor of Political Science at Penn State created a study in 2000 to examine the validity of Bueno de Mesquita’s work in The October 2000 British Journal of Political Science. His study tended to support Bueno de Mesquita’s work, within certain limitations. A year before, Stephen Walt on the faculty at Harvard, wrote a work attacking the basic assumptions of Bueno de Mesquita’s approach using “rational choice” models. (rational actions where players are promoting their own interests. Sometimes, says Walt, players will not act rationally).All of this makes it more confounding to see whether the predictions are accurate for the purposes Bueno de Mesquita is asserting–consistent and repeatable findings that can reliably determine the outcome of major international conflicts. From a layman, I ask the following: what I am looking to see from Bueno de Mesquita is NOT JUST that he can achieve good results. What I would like to know is whether OTHER PEOPLE using the same model can achieve the same results using the same methods. As he claims to be using a scientific model, this, it seems to me is a necessary prerequisite . Maybe this has been done already and I stand to be enlightened.

If Bueno de Mesquita has found the secret to solving the Middle East crises, it should be used and he should reap praise for what has not come to pass for a long long time. I probably wouldn’t be so concerned about the potentially negative impact of his work if his claims were not so definitive. For example if Bueno de Mesquita suggested that his work uncovered a range of probable scenarios, I might not be so skeptical, which I am.

CAN MATHEMATICAL SIMULATION MODELS RELIABLY PREDICT THE WORLD’S FUTURE?

Jeffrey Newman — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 15:01:00 +0000

Let me tell you how I came to be curious about the issue of model simulations and predictive analysis. First, I am not a statistician. By day, I am an internet media lawyer in a mid-sized law firm in the heart of Boston . Up until now, all the statistics I know came from one stats course in my recently completed MBA at Suffolk University in and some SPSS work and stats discussions in a Marketing Research course in the same program. As a child, I was math-limited and learning this takes a lot of effort for me. However, studying and learning statistics and regression analysis has now become an absolute maniacal obsession for me and in every non-work time waking moment, I am reading every worthwhile book and article I can get my hands on regarding statistical modeling; predictive analysis, algorithm creation; machine learning and computer modeling. I am even re-entering a math and algebra class to better understand this arena. In particular, I want to learn how and whether these tools can help to reliably predict world affairs. I choose those last words carefully. There are some pretty controversial claims being made out there about prognostications, predictive analysis and the future of the world. The key words are reliably predict.
For those of you who are up on this topic, you may find my book list humorous as it shows how much of a rookie I am. Here are a few titles; 1) Super Crunchers by Ian Ayers; 2) The Black Swan by Nassim Talen; 3) Global Catastrophes and Trends in The Next Fifty Years by Vacliv Smil and 4) Global Catastrophic Risks by Milan Cirkovic. These are just a few. I’ve read a number of others about Futurism and Predictions and was unhappy with those as they were unscientific and in some cases religiously based.
Recently, I came upon the work of New York University Professor Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, who says he has a computer model that can reliably (90% of the time) predict the outcome of almost any international conflict, provided the basic input is accurate. He has done work for the Pentagon and a number of Fortune 500 companies and has some ideas about how to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Basically, he suggests enhancing the tourist industry in the country and dividing the revenue between Israel and Palestine based on a population based formula. If there is violence, the tourists won’t come and both sides lose. Bueno de Mesquita ascribes to “game theory” or “rational choice” as the core of his model.
I digress again. I won’t delve into the details of Bueno de Mesquita’s model yet, as I plan to study it and what he is saying about it first. I have an open mind on his work, given the inherent limitations of such models outlined in The Black Swan. I have seen Bueno de Mesquita speak on You Tube, however, and he makes some pretty large claims. In my future blogs, I will discuss his work in detail and what others seem to say about it.
Back in my MBA classes I took a course called Strategic Management where we operated a simulation model game called “CapSim” in which we operated companies on the computer model for several weeks, analyzing data and advancing our companies in teams. It was this experience that caused me to wonder whether computer simulations could help us in the stewardship of world events in the near and not so near future.
With all the problems we have to face—global warming; limited natural resources and coming conflicts over water and food; population declines and all this means—we can use all the tools at our disposal to help us out. I am worried about the future and what it will mean for my son and daughter. So my question is whether machine learning and predictive analysis will help us see new ways to guide us through difficult times. Please let me know your thoughts. I am particularly interested in recommendations for my studies in this area. Thanks! Jeff