FutureVigil (r) » machine learning

A Job for Predictive Analytics; increased cost for Prescription Drugs

Jeffrey Newman — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 01:36:43 +0000

The steady and significant increases in the price of medicines, which has no indication of slowing, cries out for an extrapolation of costs going forward. Statheads come forth. Between October 2008 and September 2009, the brand-named medications most commonly used by Medicare beneficiaries rose an average of 9.3 percent. Interestingly, this was a period when there was no inflation and when consumer prices actually dropped. Those drugs that spiked their prices the most included Seroquel (to treat psychosis) 16.1%; Aricept(for dimentia), 17.2% increase; Ambien (for insomnia) 18.8% increase and Flomax (prostate) a 19.7% increase. If you analyze the drug industry answers to why such stark (and obscene) increases in prices of these and other medications, they say that it costs more to make drugs now. 18% per year more? BS! Of course the startling increases affect those on fixed incomes and those who are disabled and those who won’t get cost of living increases. Here’s where the statheads come in. The use of predictive analysis tools that have been developed including machine learning would allow us to predict with a high degree of probability the cost of most drugs separately as they will increase for the next five, ten and twenty years based on historical figures. This information, it seems to me, would be quite valuable in the hands of economists who can also predict the percentage of the population who will and will not be able to afford their medications. There are public databases of information with all information needed to determine the trend. Anyone game?

SOCIAL MEDIA TO PREVENT MURDERS AND SUICIDES?

Jeffrey Newman — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 20:49:57 +0000

This tidbit of creative thinking was found on the site of Jonathan Nguyen, who works in PR andcrises management. He saw a news story about George Sodini, who murdered three and wounded nine others in a Pennsylvania gym before killing himself. Sodini had talked about his plans on his blog, as have many others. Now, there are social media monitoring tools such as Radian6 which can read and listen to conversations on the web, including the blogosphere via an heuristic analysis engine. It is used sometimes to protect brands from disparagement and to guage sentiment on products. The questions raised is whether it could be modified to watch for potential homicidal or suicidal acts? Outstanding lateral thinking Jonathan! Present uses of social media are rudimentary and limited.

BUENO DE MESQUITA–PREDICTIVE GAME THEORY GENIUS OR MATH HERETIC?

Jeffrey Newman — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 19:59:00 +0000

A 2007 article in Good Magazine written by Michael A.M. Lerner summarized some of the work of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita in mathematically predicting “virtually any international conflict, provided the basic inputs are accurate.” Bueno de Mesquita can also be seen on You Tube giving lectures and his work raise important but thorny issues on the use of math and game theory to determine reliably the outcome of major world events. I repeat earlier caveats that I am neither a math expert or futurist but I have started to examine the potential value of model simulations in charting the potential scenarios that may unfold on the world stage. Allan Stam, Professor of Political Science at Penn State created a study in 2000 to examine the validity of Bueno de Mesquita’s work in The October 2000 British Journal of Political Science. His study tended to support Bueno de Mesquita’s work, within certain limitations. A year before, Stephen Walt on the faculty at Harvard, wrote a work attacking the basic assumptions of Bueno de Mesquita’s approach using “rational choice” models. (rational actions where players are promoting their own interests. Sometimes, says Walt, players will not act rationally).All of this makes it more confounding to see whether the predictions are accurate for the purposes Bueno de Mesquita is asserting–consistent and repeatable findings that can reliably determine the outcome of major international conflicts. From a layman, I ask the following: what I am looking to see from Bueno de Mesquita is NOT JUST that he can achieve good results. What I would like to know is whether OTHER PEOPLE using the same model can achieve the same results using the same methods. As he claims to be using a scientific model, this, it seems to me is a necessary prerequisite . Maybe this has been done already and I stand to be enlightened.

If Bueno de Mesquita has found the secret to solving the Middle East crises, it should be used and he should reap praise for what has not come to pass for a long long time. I probably wouldn’t be so concerned about the potentially negative impact of his work if his claims were not so definitive. For example if Bueno de Mesquita suggested that his work uncovered a range of probable scenarios, I might not be so skeptical, which I am.

CAN MATHEMATICAL SIMULATION MODELS RELIABLY PREDICT THE WORLD’S FUTURE?

Jeffrey Newman — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 15:01:00 +0000

Let me tell you how I came to be curious about the issue of model simulations and predictive analysis. First, I am not a statistician. By day, I am an internet media lawyer in a mid-sized law firm in the heart of Boston . Up until now, all the statistics I know came from one stats course in my recently completed MBA at Suffolk University in and some SPSS work and stats discussions in a Marketing Research course in the same program. As a child, I was math-limited and learning this takes a lot of effort for me. However, studying and learning statistics and regression analysis has now become an absolute maniacal obsession for me and in every non-work time waking moment, I am reading every worthwhile book and article I can get my hands on regarding statistical modeling; predictive analysis, algorithm creation; machine learning and computer modeling. I am even re-entering a math and algebra class to better understand this arena. In particular, I want to learn how and whether these tools can help to reliably predict world affairs. I choose those last words carefully. There are some pretty controversial claims being made out there about prognostications, predictive analysis and the future of the world. The key words are reliably predict.
For those of you who are up on this topic, you may find my book list humorous as it shows how much of a rookie I am. Here are a few titles; 1) Super Crunchers by Ian Ayers; 2) The Black Swan by Nassim Talen; 3) Global Catastrophes and Trends in The Next Fifty Years by Vacliv Smil and 4) Global Catastrophic Risks by Milan Cirkovic. These are just a few. I’ve read a number of others about Futurism and Predictions and was unhappy with those as they were unscientific and in some cases religiously based.
Recently, I came upon the work of New York University Professor Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, who says he has a computer model that can reliably (90% of the time) predict the outcome of almost any international conflict, provided the basic input is accurate. He has done work for the Pentagon and a number of Fortune 500 companies and has some ideas about how to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Basically, he suggests enhancing the tourist industry in the country and dividing the revenue between Israel and Palestine based on a population based formula. If there is violence, the tourists won’t come and both sides lose. Bueno de Mesquita ascribes to “game theory” or “rational choice” as the core of his model.
I digress again. I won’t delve into the details of Bueno de Mesquita’s model yet, as I plan to study it and what he is saying about it first. I have an open mind on his work, given the inherent limitations of such models outlined in The Black Swan. I have seen Bueno de Mesquita speak on You Tube, however, and he makes some pretty large claims. In my future blogs, I will discuss his work in detail and what others seem to say about it.
Back in my MBA classes I took a course called Strategic Management where we operated a simulation model game called “CapSim” in which we operated companies on the computer model for several weeks, analyzing data and advancing our companies in teams. It was this experience that caused me to wonder whether computer simulations could help us in the stewardship of world events in the near and not so near future.
With all the problems we have to face—global warming; limited natural resources and coming conflicts over water and food; population declines and all this means—we can use all the tools at our disposal to help us out. I am worried about the future and what it will mean for my son and daughter. So my question is whether machine learning and predictive analysis will help us see new ways to guide us through difficult times. Please let me know your thoughts. I am particularly interested in recommendations for my studies in this area. Thanks! Jeff

STAR TREK THE FUTURE TELESCOPES TO THE PAST

Jeffrey Newman — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 15:30:00 +0000

Meet The New Spock - Same As The Old Spock?

This is my first blog about the future. Yesterday, I went to see Star Trek and although my expectations were tempered from prior Star Trek films, I came away thinking that this one had a lot to it and a lot that is relevant to this particular point in human history, where all that is past and all that will be future are on a direct collision course. Without giving away the plot, there is a point in the film where the elder Spock travels back in time and meets himself, the young Spock. It seems to me that given the state of the planet, we are all facing our younger selves and must ask the question, what can I do to help protect our fragile future.

I am now obsessed with all things future. I am reading about predictive analysis and machine learning and the immense potential that these endeavors have on our ability to reliably model global trends and changes. This is an arena of hope which may help us work through the more difficult problems of environmental damage and alternative energy. I recommend the book Super Crunchers by Ian Ayres which explains the impact that analytics is having on our society.
The question remains however as to whether we have enough time to catch up with the dilemmas we have created.

I have read Nassim Taleb’s The Black Swan which explains why over-reliance on statistical models can lead to destruction. However, enhanced data analysis may enable us to make changes more efficiently and using fewer resouces. This is especially the case in medicine and Ayres book explores the use of statistical analysis to seek out trends in human illness (AIDS/HIV).

See you in the future