FutureVigil (r) » global events predictions data-mining

Should the Government Take Over the Oil Leak Cap Efforts now?

Jeffrey Newman — Sat, 29 May 2010 23:14:46 +0000

I write this directly upon BP’s announcement that “top kill” has failed to stop the flow of oil from the well and it is moving on to another approach. Given the fact that the spill is the largest disaster of its kind and the economic impact growing daily, some consideration should be given to the issue of who should control the efforts to halt the flow of oil into the Gulf. Administration officials have said that the government lacks expertise and technology, including deep diving subs, to perform the work. At some point, if BP is unsuccessful, it is likely that the government will take over and soon, perhaps enlisting other deep well oil companies to work in combination with BP. Shouldn’t this happen now? Evidence already exists that the oil has hit the gulf stream and is being carried into Florida’s waterways and is expected to run up the East Coast. No one has estimated the probable losses resulting from the event or modeled the potential harm that could befall our nation from a continuation of the leak. This is not to question the good intentions of the BP engineers who are engaging in present efforts. It is assumed for purposes of this discussion that they are well intentioned and doing everything within their power to halt the flow of oil. What is unclear to me at this time is whether our government has put out a call for the best and brightest engineers, undersea contractors, academics, oil capping experts and others to contribute their energies in an organized effort to halt the flow of oil. Certainly the resources of the federal government and the incredible pool of talented minds in our nation can come up with something notwithstanding that the leak is a mile underground. In addition to the existing problems, computer models estimating worst case scenarios with timetables should be released to the public for analysis.

Bioshock 2 video game and what it says about the future

Jeffrey Newman — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 01:27:15 +0000

I am a video game lover. Not an addict-yet, a lover. For those who have seen SHUTTER ISLAND the world inside my head is like that inside the head of Leonardo DiCaprio. Worth seeing. I dream of games which will, by their sheer brilliance and capacity to understand societal dilemmas, lift us from our downward spiral. Instead, we get more shooter games. Bioshock creators have the ability to do more–their concepts are so unique and interesting. An underwater city where brilliant scientific minds are allowed to flourish. An advanced utopian creation gone awry. So we must shoot and kill. Here’s what I think. The video game population will unite and demand more…something greater than a blast em sock em immersion, because there is more for them–something far deeper and a capacity to unify the 100 million users world wide towards greater goals. A great convergence of brain power as the world as never seen. Players of Bioshock unite. take back the night. VIDEO GAME DEVELOPERS–CONSIDER THE AWSOME POTENTIAL YOU HAVE AND THE HUMAN RESOURCES TO MAKE REAL CHANGE IN THE WORLD. LOOK AHEAD. HOW LONG DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BEFORE YOUR SHOOTER FORMATS ARE REJECTED?

THE HACK ATTACK ON GOOGLE-WE SEE THE FUTURE

Jeffrey Newman — Tue, 19 Jan 2010 08:36:55 +0000

The hackers which penetrated Google’s defenses recently demonstrated a level of sophistication which paints a frightening picture of just how vulnerable the internet is. The hackers used a combination of encryption, stealth programing and found an unknown hole in internet Explorer. A dozen or more pieces of malware and numerous lawyers of encryption allowed the hackers to bore deeply into company networks and hide their presence as stealthy aliens. The hackers stole intellectual property and gained access to the Gmail accounts of human rights activists and the attacks originated from China. The attacks which targeted 34 companies in the technology, financial and defense sectors was dubbed “Operation Aurora” as this was the name the hackers used for their mission and the name was on the computer of one of the hackers. The initial piece of code was shell code encrypted three times and then was activatedt to penetrate. One malicious code opened a remote backdoor to the computer established by an encrypted secret shannel hiding as an SSL connection to avoid detection. This allowed ongoing access to a computer which afforded the hackers entry to other parts of the network in order to search for login credentials and other data.

Isaac Asimov on Threats to Society

Jeffrey Newman — Sun, 27 Dec 2009 01:44:49 +0000

Isaac Asimov, brilliant scientist and writer speaks about threats to humanity, including global warming in an interview, posted here at this writing.

SOCIAL MEDIA TO PREVENT MURDERS AND SUICIDES?

Jeffrey Newman — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 20:49:57 +0000

This tidbit of creative thinking was found on the site of Jonathan Nguyen, who works in PR andcrises management. He saw a news story about George Sodini, who murdered three and wounded nine others in a Pennsylvania gym before killing himself. Sodini had talked about his plans on his blog, as have many others. Now, there are social media monitoring tools such as Radian6 which can read and listen to conversations on the web, including the blogosphere via an heuristic analysis engine. It is used sometimes to protect brands from disparagement and to guage sentiment on products. The questions raised is whether it could be modified to watch for potential homicidal or suicidal acts? Outstanding lateral thinking Jonathan! Present uses of social media are rudimentary and limited.

SUDDEN FREEZING NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 12,800 YRS.AGO

Jeffrey Newman — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 21:03:52 +0000

Scientists have found definitive evidence that the northern hemisphere of the earth was put into a speedy deep freeze 12,800 years ago, over a period of just months, resulting from a sudden slowdown of the gulf stream. This allowed ice to spread hundreds of miles southward from the arctic. Previous research suggested that the change took over ten years. William Patterson, Geological Sciences Professor of The University of Saskatchewan in Saskatoon Canada, who conducted the extensive study said that the findings suggest that the earth’s ckimate is unstable and can flip from warm to cold rapidly with the right trigger. Some scientists have suggested that if the Greenland ice cap melts, a similarly dramatic effect may occur by disrupting the ocean currents.

CAN STATISTICAL MODELS PREDICT THE GLOBAL FUTURE?

Jeffrey Newman — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 17:43:35 +0000

A 2007 article in Good Magazine summarized the work of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita who claims to predict mathematically, “virtually any international conflict, provided the basic inputs are accurate.” Bueno de Mesquita can also be seen on You Tube giving lectures. His work, which some dismiss too readily, raises important issues concerning the use of statistics and game theory to reliably envision the probable outcome of major world events. Who is this guy? He’s an NYU Professor of Political Science who has also studied statistics and has created a model simulation program. In the program, he takes a particular world flashpoint and plots out the probable way things will unfold based on what is known of the nation-state leaders and their actions assuming they work from a point of self interest. He acknowledges the existence of Black Swans, the events we can never anticipate but says their existence does not do away with his ability to determine a probable scenario and outcome. Allan Stam, Professor of Political Science at Penn State, examined the validity of Bueno de Mesquita’s work in the October 2000 British Journal of Political Science. He supported Bueno de Mesquita’s work, within certain limitations. A year before, Stephen Walt on the faculty at Harvard, attacked the assumptions of Bueno de Mesquita’s approach using “rational choice” models. (players promoting their own interests which Walt says is not always the case, especially when emotions or mental illness come to play). Bueno de Mesquita is asserting that consistent and repeatable findings that can reliably determine the outcome of major international conflicts. What has yet to be considered is what happens when other people use the same model? Can they achieve the same results consistently, using the same model and methods? Given that Bueno De Mesquita is claiming to use the scientific model, this, measure is the essential measure of his work. Looking more broadly, human behavior is obviously difficult to predict. However, decisions made by world leaders in crises do seem to have their own internal logic and statistical modeling is advancing swiftly in sophistication. Here where I think all of this fits. If Bueno de Mesquita and his model could reliably predict the outcome of international crisis points, he would be one of the wealthiest and most influential persons on the planet, which he isn’t. However, we now have an enhanced and growing ability to amass volumes of information quickly and to access meaningful data previously kept secret. This, combined with an increasing knowledge about the dynamics of world affairs and the internal workings of nations may allow us to reach a point where these kinds of model simulations will set a reliable base point for projecting of world trends. (As an aside, I think Bueno de Mesquita would make a great character for a dystopian sci fi novel placing him into the time when such models work and showing what horror it would wreak on his life and the lives of those around him. Sometimes, it doesn’t pay to know too much). What do you think?

BUENO DE MESQUITA–PREDICTIVE GAME THEORY GENIUS OR MATH HERETIC?

Jeffrey Newman — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 19:59:00 +0000

A 2007 article in Good Magazine written by Michael A.M. Lerner summarized some of the work of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita in mathematically predicting “virtually any international conflict, provided the basic inputs are accurate.” Bueno de Mesquita can also be seen on You Tube giving lectures and his work raise important but thorny issues on the use of math and game theory to determine reliably the outcome of major world events. I repeat earlier caveats that I am neither a math expert or futurist but I have started to examine the potential value of model simulations in charting the potential scenarios that may unfold on the world stage. Allan Stam, Professor of Political Science at Penn State created a study in 2000 to examine the validity of Bueno de Mesquita’s work in The October 2000 British Journal of Political Science. His study tended to support Bueno de Mesquita’s work, within certain limitations. A year before, Stephen Walt on the faculty at Harvard, wrote a work attacking the basic assumptions of Bueno de Mesquita’s approach using “rational choice” models. (rational actions where players are promoting their own interests. Sometimes, says Walt, players will not act rationally).All of this makes it more confounding to see whether the predictions are accurate for the purposes Bueno de Mesquita is asserting–consistent and repeatable findings that can reliably determine the outcome of major international conflicts. From a layman, I ask the following: what I am looking to see from Bueno de Mesquita is NOT JUST that he can achieve good results. What I would like to know is whether OTHER PEOPLE using the same model can achieve the same results using the same methods. As he claims to be using a scientific model, this, it seems to me is a necessary prerequisite . Maybe this has been done already and I stand to be enlightened.

If Bueno de Mesquita has found the secret to solving the Middle East crises, it should be used and he should reap praise for what has not come to pass for a long long time. I probably wouldn’t be so concerned about the potentially negative impact of his work if his claims were not so definitive. For example if Bueno de Mesquita suggested that his work uncovered a range of probable scenarios, I might not be so skeptical, which I am.