FutureVigil (tm) » game simulation

Virtual Reality Computer Models Accurately Predict Results of Real Battles

Jeffrey Newman — Sun, 09 May 2010 16:58:41 +0000

New computer modeling based on human behaviors in the past have resulted in the ability of military analysts to predict the probable outcome of particular battles. The research is being done at The University of Maryland and is expected to enhance the battlefield decision making processes in a major way.

Bioshock 2 video game and what it says about the future

Jeffrey Newman — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 01:27:15 +0000

I am a video game lover. Not an addict-yet, a lover. For those who have seen SHUTTER ISLAND the world inside my head is like that inside the head of Leonardo DiCaprio. Worth seeing. I dream of games which will, by their sheer brilliance and capacity to understand societal dilemmas, lift us from our downward spiral. Instead, we get more shooter games. Bioshock creators have the ability to do more–their concepts are so unique and interesting. An underwater city where brilliant scientific minds are allowed to flourish. An advanced utopian creation gone awry. So we must shoot and kill. Here’s what I think. The video game population will unite and demand more…something greater than a blast em sock em immersion, because there is more for them–something far deeper and a capacity to unify the 100 million users world wide towards greater goals. A great convergence of brain power as the world as never seen. Players of Bioshock unite. take back the night. VIDEO GAME DEVELOPERS–CONSIDER THE AWSOME POTENTIAL YOU HAVE AND THE HUMAN RESOURCES TO MAKE REAL CHANGE IN THE WORLD. LOOK AHEAD. HOW LONG DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BEFORE YOUR SHOOTER FORMATS ARE REJECTED?

CAN STATISTICAL MODELS PREDICT THE GLOBAL FUTURE?

Jeffrey Newman — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 17:43:35 +0000

A 2007 article in Good Magazine summarized the work of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita who claims to predict mathematically, “virtually any international conflict, provided the basic inputs are accurate.” Bueno de Mesquita can also be seen on You Tube giving lectures. His work, which some dismiss too readily, raises important issues concerning the use of statistics and game theory to reliably envision the probable outcome of major world events. Who is this guy? He’s an NYU Professor of Political Science who has also studied statistics and has created a model simulation program. In the program, he takes a particular world flashpoint and plots out the probable way things will unfold based on what is known of the nation-state leaders and their actions assuming they work from a point of self interest. He acknowledges the existence of Black Swans, the events we can never anticipate but says their existence does not do away with his ability to determine a probable scenario and outcome. Allan Stam, Professor of Political Science at Penn State, examined the validity of Bueno de Mesquita’s work in the October 2000 British Journal of Political Science. He supported Bueno de Mesquita’s work, within certain limitations. A year before, Stephen Walt on the faculty at Harvard, attacked the assumptions of Bueno de Mesquita’s approach using “rational choice” models. (players promoting their own interests which Walt says is not always the case, especially when emotions or mental illness come to play). Bueno de Mesquita is asserting that consistent and repeatable findings that can reliably determine the outcome of major international conflicts. What has yet to be considered is what happens when other people use the same model? Can they achieve the same results consistently, using the same model and methods? Given that Bueno De Mesquita is claiming to use the scientific model, this, measure is the essential measure of his work. Looking more broadly, human behavior is obviously difficult to predict. However, decisions made by world leaders in crises do seem to have their own internal logic and statistical modeling is advancing swiftly in sophistication. Here where I think all of this fits. If Bueno de Mesquita and his model could reliably predict the outcome of international crisis points, he would be one of the wealthiest and most influential persons on the planet, which he isn’t. However, we now have an enhanced and growing ability to amass volumes of information quickly and to access meaningful data previously kept secret. This, combined with an increasing knowledge about the dynamics of world affairs and the internal workings of nations may allow us to reach a point where these kinds of model simulations will set a reliable base point for projecting of world trends. (As an aside, I think Bueno de Mesquita would make a great character for a dystopian sci fi novel placing him into the time when such models work and showing what horror it would wreak on his life and the lives of those around him. Sometimes, it doesn’t pay to know too much). What do you think?

VIDEOGAME TREND–CLOSER TO REALITY: “CALL OF DUTY”

Jeffrey Newman — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 21:02:53 +0000

A video game coming out next month called “Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2″ apparently allows players to be able to shoot innocent civilians in an airport in a realistic rendering of a terrorist attack. This was revealed in footage leaked from the video-game a few days ago. The game shows a face off against a terrorist threat designed to bring the world to the edge of collapse. The company creating the game said that they want the players to be emotionally attached and shocked. Gamers are warned the scene may be disturbing and they can choose not to play through the part. This upcoming game and others displays a trend to make video games as close to reality as possible. With rich realistic visuals and quickly developing computer graphics, video games are anticipated to offer a unique opportunity to step into a new kind of reality. Activision Blizzard Inc. expects the game to be one of the highest sellers and most profitable games in the history of entertainment. I look forward to the day when they also offer an intellectual as well as visual challenge.

VIRTUAL AND AUGMENTED REALITY TO CHANGE BUSINESS, MEDICINE AND VIDEO GAMES

Jeffrey Newman — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 20:23:43 +0000

We may be on the verge of a significant technological breakthrough, likely to change our lives in many areas. Virtual and augmented reality and the use of videoconferencing is expected to alter daily business functions; enhance scientific and medical advances and create a new genre of video games and films. Virtual and “augmented” reality simulations have recently undergone major advances and the technology now exists to allow us to inexpensively enter computer enhanced worlds which so mimic reality differences are not discernable. One new product, Nintendo’s Wii has recently been shown to help treat the symptoms of Parkinson’s disease, including depression, according to Ben Herz, Program Director in the School of Allied Health Sciences at The Medical College of Georgia. Wii allows patients to move in simulated reality in a safe environment. Apparently the game increases production of dopamine, a neurotransmitter deficient in Parkinsons patients. Nintendo is also working on a holographic video system which will project full spectrum 3d images for videogames. This will mean that players will “step into” the action with already rich visuals and sound effects. A company in Seattle has created a new virtual reality device that lets players move around inside a hollow ball while visualizing a virtual reality world. The company VirtuSphere, says that the new device may be used for training fire fighters and combat troops and will also be developed for realistic videogame experiences. The sphere is an 8.5 foot hollow ball. The user steps into the ball wearing a wireless head mounted vitual display and can walk jump, roll or crawl in any direction. Iowa State University has created what it says is the most realistic virtual realit room in the world. This is a 10-foot by 10-foot virtual reality room which surrounds users with computer generated 3D images. It is being used to study, among other things, cell biology (aka Fantastic Voyage). One thing is certain, the time is not far off when businesses use vitual reality to save money on travel and to enhance communications. The first significant uses are expected in video games where players will step into a new reality of adventure and realism and instead of using an xbox or mouse, they will act physically in this world. Studies indicate that pilots trained on flight simulators–a form of virtual reality are more proficient than those trained in real planes. Surgeons are now receiving training on model simulators allowing them to gain significant time in the operating room without risk to actual patients. The technologies used in both of these fields are now being developed for use in realistic video games and Hollywood films.

BUENO DE MESQUITA–PREDICTIVE GAME THEORY GENIUS OR MATH HERETIC?

Jeffrey Newman — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 19:59:00 +0000

A 2007 article in Good Magazine written by Michael A.M. Lerner summarized some of the work of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita in mathematically predicting “virtually any international conflict, provided the basic inputs are accurate.” Bueno de Mesquita can also be seen on You Tube giving lectures and his work raise important but thorny issues on the use of math and game theory to determine reliably the outcome of major world events. I repeat earlier caveats that I am neither a math expert or futurist but I have started to examine the potential value of model simulations in charting the potential scenarios that may unfold on the world stage. Allan Stam, Professor of Political Science at Penn State created a study in 2000 to examine the validity of Bueno de Mesquita’s work in The October 2000 British Journal of Political Science. His study tended to support Bueno de Mesquita’s work, within certain limitations. A year before, Stephen Walt on the faculty at Harvard, wrote a work attacking the basic assumptions of Bueno de Mesquita’s approach using “rational choice” models. (rational actions where players are promoting their own interests. Sometimes, says Walt, players will not act rationally).All of this makes it more confounding to see whether the predictions are accurate for the purposes Bueno de Mesquita is asserting–consistent and repeatable findings that can reliably determine the outcome of major international conflicts. From a layman, I ask the following: what I am looking to see from Bueno de Mesquita is NOT JUST that he can achieve good results. What I would like to know is whether OTHER PEOPLE using the same model can achieve the same results using the same methods. As he claims to be using a scientific model, this, it seems to me is a necessary prerequisite . Maybe this has been done already and I stand to be enlightened.

If Bueno de Mesquita has found the secret to solving the Middle East crises, it should be used and he should reap praise for what has not come to pass for a long long time. I probably wouldn’t be so concerned about the potentially negative impact of his work if his claims were not so definitive. For example if Bueno de Mesquita suggested that his work uncovered a range of probable scenarios, I might not be so skeptical, which I am.